Please
take note: unlike Ghana in our recent electoral history, there were no rampaging
foot soldiers besieging the Electoral Commission, nor were there any bitter
accusations of rigging, vote-buying or any shenanigans before, during and after
the voting. This did not mean that the losers did not feel the bitter sting of
defeat. Indeed, many at the Sarkozy post-election rally were in tears, and
there is no love lost between the Left and the Right in French politics with
many genuine points of disagreement defining them, of which more anon.
So
why is there such a contrast between the manner in which say, the French
conducted their last election and the way in which we do our election business,
especially the ending bit? Here, even when the losing candidate concedes, it is
done rather grudgingly with an ungracious statement that usually loosely means,
“I know you stole the election but because I love peace and under pressure from
my people, I am conceding defeat, but I will meet you in court!”
Mr.
Sarkozy did not concede so graciously because he loves peace more than our lot
do, nor did the French system work the way it did and does because of some
innate superior civilization. It worked that way because of two words: OPINON
POLLS. Opinion polls showed Mr. Sarkozy trailing his opponent for most of the
past one year and he knew that his one serious chance to overtake Mr. Hollande
or even close the gap evaporated when he failed to land the killer punch in the
final live television debate which took place a few days before the vote.
In
the West, opinion polls are a standard survey by which politicians, the media,
businesses and civil society groups try to find out what a population segment
feels about an issue or issues from a particular sample. Opinion polls are
usually designed to represent the opinions of a sample population by
conducting a series of questions and then using the answers to reflect how
other people similar to the sample would respond.
Polling
started in the US nearly two hundred years ago, and has now been refined into
both an art form and a science. Its modern form can be traced to the latter
years between the two World Wars. Elmo Roper, an American pioneer in political
forecasting predicted the re-election of President Franklin D. Roosevelt three
times – in 1936, 1940 and 1944. Gallup launched a subsidiary in the United
Kingdom, where it almost alone correctly predicted victory for the Labour Party
in the 1945 general election, in contrast with virtually all other commentators
who expected a victory for the Conservative Party, led by Winston Churchill.
Polling
is a very important part of the political and electoral process since it helps
to guide candidates and electors as well as the government in making choices,
including in the allocation of resources. In sub-Saharan Africa, excluding
South Africa, polling is viewed suspiciously because it is often used as
propaganda instead of a guide. In the West, newspapers hardly conduct polls themselves
but commission polls from specialised agencies such as Harris, Gallup or YouGov
since these organisations have the expertise and prestige to present credible
polls.
In
the French presidential election, the actual result and final polls were very
close, but the reason why Sarkozy conceded so readily was that he had his own
polls which would have told him that the game was up. All good political
organisations in the West commission their own polls from credible
organisations because they know that information from their own party agents
can be tinged with exaggeration. Sarkozy would have known, despite putting a
brave face on things, even before voting started that he had lost.
The Vision Thing
Another
contrast between us and the French in electoral terms is that the latter knew
the clear choices available to them. On issues such as immigration, the
economy, banking reforms, unemployment and labour laws there is broad daylight
between the Gaullists on the Right and the Socialists on the Left. There are
parties at various degrees of extremes to the left and right of the mainstream
and they all have their different policy prescriptions. But more critically,
they offer different VISIONS of the future. Here, all political parties PROMISE
to build schools, universities, clinics, hospitals and roads. That does not
amount to a vision. Even the colonialists built schools, hospitals and roads
although their vision for us was completely different from what we wished for
ourselves.
It
goes without saying that some questions are more difficult to ask than others,
never mind answering them. For example, when you think about it, there are two
important questions we need to ask about the coming presidential elections in
December. The easier one is: Who are we voting for? The obvious answer is that
we are voting for a president and we get a vice president thrown in for free,
sort of. In all probability and barring any unforeseen gargantuan occurrence of
seismic proportions, the next President of Ghana will be either Professor John
Mills or Nana Akuffo Addo. So we know more or less who we are voting for; the
candidates of the CPP, PNC, PPP and all other smaller parties and independent
candidates can huff and puff all they want but the thing is a done deal.
The
question we ought to ask is why we should vote for them, or even for the
candidates of the smaller parties who are generously offering themselves. What
we need is what former US President George Bush called “the vision thing”, that
is what, and we have not had that from any candidate in clear terms. For
example, take discipline; we are in a nation in which everyone does that which
will bring immediate satisfaction to them. If it means tearing up a newly built
road, or cutting copper cables from high tension connections, so be it.
Everyone does what they like because no one is leading the line against
indiscipline. Passers-by pass by as people do unspeakable things because there
is no vision for us on which to draw inspiration.
You
can build schools without providing education; you can build hospitals without
providing health; however you cannot develop a nation without a vision and looking
for this vision should be the principal task of any people as they are called
upon to elect a leader. Much of the talk from our politicians, especially of
the NDC and NPP variety is: vote for me because I am not the other one. Ghanaians
should take a leaf from the people in a village on the road between Atimpoku
and Ho who every four years mount a road sign saying: NO TOILET NO VOTE. We
should say simply, NO VISION NO VOTE.